Curlin, Big Brown and Zenyatta highlight 2008

Horseracing Betting Lines

11/12/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The major part of the 2008 thoroughbred racing season has been completed, so let's take a few seconds to look back and forward.

Three names came to dominate the headlines this year: Curlin, Big Brown and Zenyatta. All three secured themselves at least one Eclipse Award with the only question being, Who is the 2008 Horse of the Year?

Defending Horse of the Year Curlin made thoroughbred history in 2008 by becoming the first horse to surpass the $10 million mark in lifetime earnings. The four-year-old colt went past Cigar on the career earnings list with a second straight win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

With Robby Albarado in the saddle for all seven starts, Curlin won five times in 2008 to bank $5,399,000. While it has not been officially announced, Curlin closes his Hall of Fame career with $10,501,800. The only thing he was unable to accomplish was repeating as Breeders' Cup Classic champ.

Leading three-year-old Big Brown may have had the strangest of years. After blowing away the competition in the Florida Derby, Run for the Roses and Preakness Stakes, he failed miserably in the Belmont Stakes.

We will never know exactly why the best three-year-old of 2008 was pulled up at the top of the stretch in the Belmont Stakes by jockey Kent Desormeaux. The official chart shows that he never finished the 1 1/2 mile Test of Champions.

Owned by IEAH Stables, Big Brown came back with a win in the Haskell Invitational after looking beaten in mid-stretch by Coal Play. Big Brown's final start was on the turf in the Monmouth Stakes in preparation for the Breeders' Cup.

Unfortunately, Big Brown suffered a hoof injury during training for the Breeders' Cup and was retired. He finished with $3,614,500 having won seven of eight career starts.

I never bet on Big Brown, nor consider him an all-time great. However, I give his connections credit for getting him to the starting gate for the Belmont Stakes plus two more starts. He suffered some setbacks following the Preakness and I expected Big Brown to be retired sometime during the three week break between the final two Triple Crown events.

Other than Curlin, Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic champ Zenyatta is the only possible thoroughbred who could be voted 2008 Horse of the Year. The four- year-old filly is undefeated in nine career starts, seven this year, and has career earnings of better than $2.1 million.

Zenyatta had a very well orchestrated schedule. She started eight times in California, all on synthetic tracks. Her lone race elsewhere was the Apple Blossom Handicap this year at Oaklawn Park when she was the second choice behind 2007 Eclipse winner Ginger Punch who finished third.

Breeders' Cup Classic winner Raven's Pass has been retired to Sheikh Mohammed's Kildangan Stud in County Kildare, Ireland. The three-year-old closes his short career with seven wins in 11 starts and $3,664,833,

Looking ahead to the Triple Crown races of 2009, Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ Midshipman has been taken to Dubai to prepare for the Kentucky Derby. Midshipman, owned by Shiekh Mohammed, has won three of four starts for $1,380,200. Shiekh Mohammed is desperate to win the Run for the Roses.

Juvenile Turf winner Donativum is owned by Princess Haya of Jordan, the wife of Shiekh Mohammed. Trained by John Gosden, the gelding has three wins in six starts and better than $1.5 million. His status for the Kentucky Derby is unknown.

In early odds for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, Midshipman is roughly 15-1 and Donativum is 20-1. Keep in mind that lightly raced three-year-olds are becoming the rule not the exception leading to the Kentucky Derby.

Hangsme Horseracing Betting News

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.